The ongoing peace initiative by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) in South Sudan faces significant challenges due to persistent internal conflicts in Juba.
Reports from various factions in Juba suggest that one major obstacle to the peace process and December elections is the head of the National Security Services Internal Security Bureau, Gen. Akol Koor Kuc. Gen. Koor is perceived as untouchable and is unwilling to support any measures that do not align with his selfish financial interests.
Despite repeated appeals from other factions for recognition, the peace initiative in Nairobi has stalled, largely due to Gen. Akol’s dismissal of their importance and this briefly explains the secret behind a crisis that has already left more than five million people – roughly half the population – in need of aid.
“It is evident that, despite the suffering of the people, some individuals responsible for the security of South Sudan are leveraging their power for personal political gain. We doubt the possibility of achieving total peace because the NSS is acting as a barrier rather than a facilitator. Akol is the malign force profiting while South Sudanese continue to suffer,” said a source.
Of course, Akol is not the only conflict fueller, others are; Security Advisor NCP Tut Gatluak Manimne, Dr Martin Elia Lumoro and Riek Machar. Machar has since announced that he would fight on. He is joined by veteran dissident Lam Akol, who launched his own National Democratic Movement to battle the government.
S.Sudan is a country held to ransom by what analyst Majak D’Agoot refers to as the “gun class” – top generals, “sectarian warlords” have historically used violence, channelled through appeals to ethnic nationalism, to “hijack” the state for “personal gain”.
It’s essentially a zero-sum game for who will be “king of the hill in Juba”, says conflict researcher Alan Boswell. ”Meanwhile, amidst this confusion, the government maintains the idea there is still a government of national unity, based on the Addis Ababa peace agreement, an exhausting and frustrating mediation effort by the regional Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD).”
Overall, due to these conflicts, more than one million South Sudanese are now refugees in the region, with about 174,000 fleeing since the beginning of July.
People escaping the violence in Equatoria and crossing into Uganda speak of villages being attacked and looted, women sexually abused, and young boys conscripted. “You can feel something terrible looming on the horizon, an enormous pall,” says the analyst in Juba.
“The best scenario is an impossible one,” says Jok. “It’s to get Machar, Akol and his entire group out of Sudan gov’t, let them have no single office at any level, whether military or political.